An election forecaster who previously predicted a landslide victory for Vice President Kamala Harris has switched his prediction to former President Donald Trump.
Thomas Miller, a data scientist who accurately predicted the 2020 presidential election result, previously backed Harris to win in 2024, telling Newsweek in September that the Democrat was on track to win more than 400 votes in the Electoral College, according to his model.
The model, which relies on betting odds as opposed to polling data aggregates, is now saying that Trump is the favorite, with its most recent prediction estimating the Republican could win 345 votes in the Electoral College.
Newsweek has mapped out what a potential 345 Electoral College win could look like for the former president. In this scenario he sweeps the South and Midwest, winning all the states where Harris has only a single-digit lead, per FiveThirtyEight's forecast.
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The model first began predicting a narrow Trump victory on October 7, when betting odds began swinging towards the former president.
Miller's model prioritizes betting odds over polling data and also uses historical trends from previous elections to balance the data with what he calls "fundamentals," something that most other models do as well.
Thomas Miller, a data scientist who accurately predicted the 2020 presidential election result, previously backed Harris to win in 2024, telling Newsweek in September that the Democrat was on track to win more than 400 votes in the Electoral College, according to his model.
The model, which relies on betting odds as opposed to polling data aggregates, is now saying that Trump is the favorite, with its most recent prediction estimating the Republican could win 345 votes in the Electoral College.
Newsweek has mapped out what a potential 345 Electoral College win could look like for the former president. In this scenario he sweeps the South and Midwest, winning all the states where Harris has only a single-digit lead, per FiveThirtyEight's forecast.
The model first began predicting a narrow Trump victory on October 7, when betting odds began swinging towards the former president.
Miller's model prioritizes betting odds over polling data and also uses historical trends from previous elections to balance the data with what he calls "fundamentals," something that most other models do as well.
